Sales forecast accuracy calculator
Enter what you forecast and what you closed. You will see how accurate your forecast has been, and whether you tend to run high or low. Nothing you type leaves your browser.
Your numbers
Example numbers shown. Replace them with yours.Your result
On average your forecast was 12.5% above the result. You over-forecast in 3 of 4 periods.
In total you forecast $5,900,000 and closed $5,280,000.
- Q185.7%Forecast was high by 14.3%
- Q281.4%Forecast was high by 18.6%
- Q396.2%Forecast was low by 3.8%
- Q479.2%Forecast was high by 20.8%
How the calculation works
For each period, the miss is the forecast minus the actual, divided by the actual. Accuracy is 100% minus the size of that miss. The headline number is the average across the periods you entered.
Bias is the average miss with its sign kept. A positive number means your forecast is usually above the result.
What to do with the result
- If you run high: look at the deals that were in commit and did not close. They usually share a pattern, such as no dated next step on the customer side.
- If you run low: deals are closing that were not in the forecast. Check whether stages are being updated late.
- If it swings both ways: the inputs are unreliable. The forecast depends on which rep gave the update.
Frequently asked questions
- How do you calculate forecast accuracy?
- Forecast accuracy for a period is 100% minus the size of the miss as a percentage of what you actually closed: 1 − |forecast − actual| ÷ actual. A forecast of $1.2M against $1.05M closed is a 14.3% miss, so 85.7% accurate.
- Which forecast number should I use?
- Use the number you committed at a fixed point, such as the start of the quarter or the first board update. A forecast that was revised in the last week will always look accurate and tells you nothing.
- What is forecast bias?
- Bias is the direction you usually miss in. If your forecast is above the result most quarters, you over-forecast. A team can be fairly accurate on average and still be biased, and bias is the easier one to correct.
- Why do forecasts run high?
- Most forecasts are built from CRM stages and what reps say about their deals. Both reflect the view of the person who owns the deal, which leans optimistic. A forecast built from what customers wrote and said removes that lean.
Find out why the forecast missed
This calculator tells you how far off the forecast was. Noodle tells you which deals caused it. It reads every email and call on every deal and gives you a forecast built from that evidence, next to your CRM number.